International Cat Speculators Since 2006

Posts tagged ‘Election Night’

Morning After

Well, after singing “Ding dong the wicked witch is dead” about 20 times, my wife got sick of it and told me it was mean.

Then suggested Clark could get a job on the remake ;)

Still can’t believe Clark and Winston are gone. Actually, beginning to wonder if Clark is going anywhere – she’s gotten her cronys in power and still has her seat. Hm.

I will miss Ron Mark – he was a clear sensible voice, and his experience in the military was a valuable addition to parliament in a time of war (or denial thereof).

Just waiting for the “The Standard” style satire where they suggest that Labour could still form a government because ACT was created from Labour!

But in reality, this is the largest party vote ever under MMP.

It will be interesting how the negotiations with ACT go. Between those and getting access to the full, up to date books, Key has ample opportunity to trim back some of the more silly promises he’s been making.

Roger Douglas is back. Why ACT did that, I have no idea. Next thing Rodney will put on wait and go on a perk busting crusade.

Update: Wife (who objects to my proposed knickname of “tiggy”) suggests an ACT bottom line may be repeal of the Section 59 repeal. Let’s hope so.

Polls vs. Actual

Actual vote vs Curia poll of polls.

Eff. % % MPs Polls
National 49% 45 59 46.8
Act 4% 3.7 5 2.6
Lab 36% 33 43 34.6
Green 7% 6.4 8 8.1
NZF 0% 4.3 3.3
MRI 2% 2.2 5 2.4
Prog 1% 0.9 1 0.5
UNF 1% 0.9 1 0.5
96.4 122

So National down a little, ACT up some – not that surprising, many Nats would have wanted to push them further right and swapped over to ACT to do that.

But with Winston out, that changed things and gave quite an advantage to National, increasing their share from 45% to 49%, making it impossible to loose.

Greens down from expectations, thank goodness. Labour also lost, methinks hepled by the pacifici party. But I think a lot of people decided on their way to the booth that it was time for change.

Nice to see Jim and Peter cancelling each other out.

That’s me for tonight.

End of an Error

She’s all over.

National and ACT have 64 between them (I was counting Dunne earlier) and the opposition will have 58 – a clear majority. No minority coalitions. Key will surely work with Maori and Dunne though.

Tauranga is final, Winston is out. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Clark is out as PM, no more manipulating the leavers of government to stay in power. No secret mini-budget in December, no more EFA controlling opposing interest groups during election year. New Zealand’s second women PM will be remembered as one who squandered the good times and was kicked out as things went very badly wrong on her watch.

partyvoteshare

Update 11:11pm: Full on talk about Helen – will she go? Williams can’t be drawn, thinks they’ve renewed the ranks. Yea, with Helen loyalists, at the expense of the center.

Labour 21 electorate seats. Burns and Robertson won – stink.

Update 11:17pm: Helen leaving. Hunt recons she’s the best PM he knew. Well, she did honor him as one of the top 20 living NZers. “Do you have a preference for new leader?” – very quick no!!

DPF happy.

Update 11:21pm: Clark entering to applause and cheers. 99.7% counted.

Update 11:32pm: Starts with a “all languages” greeting. Sorry, again campaign is over. She’s won the electorate. Proud to lead the party and won last 3 elections. Congratulates John Key. “Tonight is a night for the winners to savor, but we won’t ge going away”.

“We are very fortunate to live in a democracy.” Accepts responsibility for result. Says her only objective was to serve New Zealand, ok, now we know she’s lying!

He job to lead Labour to electoral respectability. There and back I guess.

Wong won Botany.

She’s proud of her record. “Years of advances in health and public eduction” – what’s she been smoking!?!

Elevated all kiwis regardless of faith, gender bla bla – unless you’re exclusive brethren.

“this is a time for rebuilding, and that process has already begun.” Thinks they’re going to bring new ideas. Year right, they all worked in your office. “doesn’t go up in flames on a bonfire created by the right wing of politics” – ok, now the bitterness comes on.

Cullen thanked. Family & Peter thanked. She’s standing down!!!

She’s standing down!!!

seats

Update 11:34pm: John Key leaving.

Update 11:44pm: Clark being interviewed. Seems their internal polling was off. Heh, pity that.

Eff. % % MPs
National 49% 45 59
Act 4% 3.7 5
Lab 36% 33 43
Green 7% 6.4 8
NZF 0% 4.3
MRI 2% 2.2 5
Prog 1% 0.9 1
UNF 1% 0.9 1
96.4 122

11:46pm John Key arriving behind tight security.

11:50pm John Key speaking – New Zealand has spoken!

They have voted for change :)

There will be a new National lead government in New Zealand. Thanks every New Zealander who cast their vote for National today.

Easy to type this one, constantly interpreted with cheers!

Patience rewarded. Heard the message – New Zealand can do better! “I simply say thank you.” – very humble.

“NZers voted for a safer, more prosperous New Zealand”

100% counted.

Recalls riding his bike past houses of those better off as a child. We have the ability to make our lives better. New Zealand has so much more potential – this is not as good as it gets. We fact challenges but we will rise to them. We have advantages. … most of all our incredible kiwi ingenuity.

rocky road ahead. Need to be on top of our game. Unity of purpose will determine success, will depend on individuals.

All have perspectives, have debates, as it should be. Now is a time for working together. Need everybody pulling in same direction. … bla bla.

Whether you voted for National or not you have his pledge – I will lead a government that serves the interests of all New Zealanders, that rewards individual achievement, supports those who cannot support themselves, that we can all be part of.

Thanks Helen Clark. She was gracious. Admires clark, work ethic and desire to make country better. Always ensured our voice was loudly heard on the international stage (many hate us for this incidentally!!).

Spoke to Hide and Dunne. They have indicated support – will work towards establishing a new government.

Also spoke to Turia. Expressed willingness to engage in dialogue next week.

Thanks volunteers.

Thanks president (he’d better thank his family soon!!) then thanks Bill down south. They know how to have a good time down there!

Thanks Stephen Joyce for running a great campaign. Thanks caucus – now much bigger. Thanks candidates.

Cheers Auckland Central victory – what a cracker!, others…

Thanks voters of Helensville for re-electing him again. (18.5k majority.)

TVNZ cuts coverage of speech 12:04pm.

89% – Almost there

Good, TVNZ have put up the “margin of error” graphic on their site.

NZF looks the same but flipped below the dashed line (5% threshold)

Eff. % % MPs
National 49% 45 59
Lab 36% 33 43
Green 7% 6.5 8
NZF 0% 4.3
Act 4% 3.7 5
MRI 2% 2.2 5
Prog 1% 0.9 1
UNF 1% 0.9 1
96.5 122

Nats lost a seat, but that appears to have been temporary. (see last post)

89.9% booths counted.

Update: 10:15pm Dunne is speaking to his parties’ party. “Disappointing”. Country was in mood for change, will support key. Winston arrives at his HQ spoiling the party, still smiling. Winston taking the last opportunity to boss around the media, trying to push them back. TV should have kept on Dunne.

Winston giving very nice congratulations to Bridges, who has a massive majority. Now talking about how the next 3 years will be difficult.

Update: 10:18pm

“Your cause is not over” “others will pick up the cudgels”

Quite disturbing listening to Winston actually use words to say something for once!

Willie Jackson then blames Farrar (sitting beside him) and others for Winston’s problems. Bullshit, the man was a serial liar, who’s dishonesty finally came to full light of day.

Update: 10:21pm 93.8% counted. Williams – “nothing was proven” Bullshit, the man proved himself a liar, and not “cleared”, just managed to escape prosecution.  Of course Williams is well proven on multiple occasions to be a liar himself.

Update: 10:25pm CR have effectively 54% of the vote (as NZF is discounted) with 65 seats. I notice that NZF have lost another .1%, down to 4.2%. Just as well, if they’d gone the other way there might have been a big problem!

Update: 10:30pm Labour and NZF lose 7 seats each, Nats pick up 11. Thank goodness Greens haven’t picked up as many as projected, only 8 not 11. Phew.

Update: 10:32pm Tizard is out – final result! Media are playing “follow the leader” with Winston. Why!? Forget him, get back to reporting the actual news.

Nats have never held Auckland Central before.

95.9% counted.

Update: 10:38pm Russell Fairbrother appears to be out of parliament, loosing Napier and not on the list. ditto Duynhoven & O’Conner.

I am so looking forward to Clark’s concession speech!

Update: 10:42pm The Labour party party is looking very, very gloomy. Very few people, all sitting down and not talking. Greens happy. Well, they did pick up 2 seats but they’re firmly in opposition.

One problem with multiple parties, now Greens and Maori leaders talking at same time. Jeanette thinks they might pick up another on specials.

Update: 10:47pm JT – Labour have some soul searching, have lost some centrist electorate MPs. – very true. Paul East – Labour does not have the confidence of the people in West Auckland.

JT recons that anti-smacking had huge impact.

Anderton – Too early to say where it’s gone wrong. Only too happy to talk about what went right, but interrupted – campaign is over!

Update: 10:52pm 98.1% counted, looks like Key is about to leave… maybe!

Clark should make a concession call, but I wouldn’t put it past her not to.

Update: 10:56pm Hamilton lives up to it’s bell-weather reputation, mirroring the national party vote.

No convergence like last time! Yay. “Nats grew vote at expense of enemy, not friend.”

Clark’s parents leaving.

Key is allowing Clark the dignity of talking to her supporters before he makes his appearance. Sounds like a concession call was made.

Tightening

Getting tighter – just took one off Nats, added one to Labour.

BRIDGES, Simon    12118
PETERS, Winston    4967

Eff. % % MPs
National 50% 46 60
Lab 35% 32 42
Green 7% 6.4 8
NZF 0% 4.3
Act 4% 3.7 5
MRI 2% 2.2 5
Prog 1% 0.9 1
UNF 1% 0.9 1
96.4 122

Update: Everything’s bigger at Mitre 10 mega… wait, that’s an ad.

Update: 9:30pm Seems that my recommendation to look at TVNZ has crashed the site :) Nope, it’s back up.

Update: 9:35pm Looks like Maori may pick up 1 more, but close. They won’t pick up the other 2 though. Nanaia Mahuta, and Parekura Horomia are looking comfortable

Matt McCartain looks terrible compared to last time I’ve seen him on TV.

Tizard still just behind.

Wahoo!!! Stephen Franks leading liar Grant Robertson.

Update: 9:37pm Almost 70% counted, Nats lose another seat to Labour. Center Right now 65/122

Update 9:49pm Nelson is counted! Nick Smith wins. Helen might be about to move? Doubt it.

Update: 9:52pm Field has taken 12% off Labour in his electorate, 3&4% in the others. This will dampen the late Labour swing.

Hide is safe in Epson – very good, because with Winston out, that party vote share goes a lot further.

Update: 9:56pm 82.3% counted.

Update: 9:58pm Another comes off Nats, CR now 64/122

Mike Williams looks unhappy. As well he should.

Update: 10:00pm Huh, that seat just came back, or they havn’t changed their ticker graphics.

Watching Results

I’ve setup a spreadsheet here, and my calculations are that only 86.2% of the vote is actually counting.

Now, this will tighten up, but it’s looking ok so far.

Eff. % %
National 52% 48
Lab 34% 31
Green 7% 6.1
NZF 0% 4.6
Act 4% 3.3
MRI 2% 2.2
Prog 1% 0.9
UNF 1% 0.8

Update: Looks like several Labour MPs are in the gun to loose their electorates – Steve Chadwick is the last one mentioned, Tizard I think was also one mentioned earlier I think.

Maori party look like they’re picking up 1 more.

Update: 8:46pm O’Conner might go too.

Party Vote:

Green + Lab 40%
Nat + Act 56%

Labour -9 Nat +10.3 just flashed up on TVNZ

Update: 8:50pm TVNZ – Adjusted for this stage last time, Nat + Act have 49%

My calculations are that NZF’s falling under the threashold is giving Nats 3% extra.

Update: 9pm TVNZ are switching between actual count and adjusted count, CR are 63/67 Adjusted/Actual, in a 122 seat Parliament.

Peter Dunne in troucle with ony 258 lead over National, Labour also close.

Duynhoven may be out completely as he is behind by 800 odd, and not on list.

Marahy’s old seat appears to be neck and neck.

Tizard still slightly behind with (50% counted?).

Labour’s carpet bagger is behind by 70 in Chch Centeral – Good.

Update: TVNZ is now broadcasting the same thing on both 1 and 7… um… why?!?

Update: 9:10pm

Nats stil up 9.6, Lab -8.4

They’re commenting that the convergence is not happening yet.

TVNZ have a good site – you can see it all there, electorates and all.

Winston is on 4.3, brilliant, but hope it doesn’t change!!

40% counted.

Update: 9:14pm Heh, voters being interviewed – Change!!

CR on 67 seats out of 122.

Act on 5.

NZF voters being interviewed, seem to have changed party vote to Nats.

Update: 9:17pm Greens absolutely in, NZF absolutely out, sample is now large enough to conclusively say though was possible earlier. Put that graphic on the web site mate.  Winston on the recieving end of a major spanking in Tauranga. Just about 50% counted.

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