I’m so confused.
Kim Hill’s American correspondent explained on Saturday morning that the Electoral College system (which is apparently far too complex for mere mortals to understand – please refer to me as “The Deity formerly known as Scrubone”)… ahem, would keep that very deserving fellow Obama out of the White House.
Today, the Herald says the exact opposite. And they make a much better case.
Rather than the national polls, what matters are the trends in each of the states: ie, an average of all the polls taken over a period of time. If these are examined, Obama has about 260 which look fairly strong while McCain has 176. The Democrats also have 46 which are “lean”, ie, they are marginal at the moment but could be carried in the election. McCain has 64 which look “lean”. (pollster.com).
If all of these “lean” states went McCain’s way, he would still come up short – whereas Obama needs only 10 of these states to win.