International Cat Speculators Since 2006

Posts tagged ‘General Election 2008’

Predictions for Elections

Wife has asked for election predictions, so here goes.

  • Winston will not win Tauranga, and will reach about 4.5%
  • The Maori Party will win all seats, and get enough party votes to only have one overhang
  • Peter Dune will win his seat, possibly an outside chance of other
  • Jim Anderton will win his
  • National will clean up in electorates
  • Act will gain 2 MPs as the vote swings right
  • The Greens will get about 8%, picking up support from Labour.
  • I think Labour will either pick up some support from this point, or lose a significant amount. This all depends on the circumstances leading up to the election – what is the mood of Joe Average when he walks into the polling booth? Will he be wanting change, or will he be wary of National?

I suspect that the change is more likely, and that Helen will get around %30 of the vote, with National picking up just about 50% – enough to govern confidently, with a willing partner to go in any direction.

What are your predictions?

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