Predictions for Elections

Wife has asked for election predictions, so here goes.

• Winston will not win Tauranga, and will reach about 4.5%
• The Maori Party will win all seats, and get enough party votes to only have one overhang
• Peter Dune will win his seat, possibly an outside chance of other
• Jim Anderton will win his
• National will clean up in electorates
• Act will gain 2 MPs as the vote swings right
• The Greens will get about 8%, picking up support from Labour.
• I think Labour will either pick up some support from this point, or lose a significant amount. This all depends on the circumstances leading up to the election – what is the mood of Joe Average when he walks into the polling booth? Will he be wanting change, or will he be wary of National?

I suspect that the change is more likely, and that Helen will get around %30 of the vote, with National picking up just about 50% – enough to govern confidently, with a willing partner to go in any direction.

What are your predictions?