International Cat Speculators Since 2006

89% – Almost there


Good, TVNZ have put up the “margin of error” graphic on their site.

NZF looks the same but flipped below the dashed line (5% threshold)

Eff. % % MPs
National 49% 45 59
Lab 36% 33 43
Green 7% 6.5 8
NZF 0% 4.3
Act 4% 3.7 5
MRI 2% 2.2 5
Prog 1% 0.9 1
UNF 1% 0.9 1
96.5 122

Nats lost a seat, but that appears to have been temporary. (see last post)

89.9% booths counted.

Update: 10:15pm Dunne is speaking to his parties’ party. “Disappointing”. Country was in mood for change, will support key. Winston arrives at his HQ spoiling the party, still smiling. Winston taking the last opportunity to boss around the media, trying to push them back. TV should have kept on Dunne.

Winston giving very nice congratulations to Bridges, who has a massive majority. Now talking about how the next 3 years will be difficult.

Update: 10:18pm

“Your cause is not over” “others will pick up the cudgels”

Quite disturbing listening to Winston actually use words to say something for once!

Willie Jackson then blames Farrar (sitting beside him) and others for Winston’s problems. Bullshit, the man was a serial liar, who’s dishonesty finally came to full light of day.

Update: 10:21pm 93.8% counted. Williams – “nothing was proven” Bullshit, the man proved himself a liar, and not “cleared”, just managed to escape prosecution.  Of course Williams is well proven on multiple occasions to be a liar himself.

Update: 10:25pm CR have effectively 54% of the vote (as NZF is discounted) with 65 seats. I notice that NZF have lost another .1%, down to 4.2%. Just as well, if they’d gone the other way there might have been a big problem!

Update: 10:30pm Labour and NZF lose 7 seats each, Nats pick up 11. Thank goodness Greens haven’t picked up as many as projected, only 8 not 11. Phew.

Update: 10:32pm Tizard is out – final result! Media are playing “follow the leader” with Winston. Why!? Forget him, get back to reporting the actual news.

Nats have never held Auckland Central before.

95.9% counted.

Update: 10:38pm Russell Fairbrother appears to be out of parliament, loosing Napier and not on the list. ditto Duynhoven & O’Conner.

I am so looking forward to Clark’s concession speech!

Update: 10:42pm The Labour party party is looking very, very gloomy. Very few people, all sitting down and not talking. Greens happy. Well, they did pick up 2 seats but they’re firmly in opposition.

One problem with multiple parties, now Greens and Maori leaders talking at same time. Jeanette thinks they might pick up another on specials.

Update: 10:47pm JT – Labour have some soul searching, have lost some centrist electorate MPs. – very true. Paul East – Labour does not have the confidence of the people in West Auckland.

JT recons that anti-smacking had huge impact.

Anderton – Too early to say where it’s gone wrong. Only too happy to talk about what went right, but interrupted – campaign is over!

Update: 10:52pm 98.1% counted, looks like Key is about to leave… maybe!

Clark should make a concession call, but I wouldn’t put it past her not to.

Update: 10:56pm Hamilton lives up to it’s bell-weather reputation, mirroring the national party vote.

No convergence like last time! Yay. “Nats grew vote at expense of enemy, not friend.”

Clark’s parents leaving.

Key is allowing Clark the dignity of talking to her supporters before he makes his appearance. Sounds like a concession call was made.

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