Jordan wants to discuss this scenario.
Counting late into the night showed a Labour Party result of 39.2% and 47 seats, behind the National Party’s 43.6% and 52 seats. The Greens received 5.5% of the vote, winning seven seats, and New Zealand First scored 5.2% and six seats, with Winston Peters making a remarkable comeback in Tauranga, winning his old stamping ground by 2,400 votes on election night numbers. …
In the parliament of 120 seats, the centre-right held 54 seats. The centre-left held 60 seats, with the remaining seats held by New Zealand First.
Helen Clark fronted the media from her house in Mt Albert this afternoon, having spent the morning forming agreements for a Labour-Progressive-Maori Party-Greens minority coalition government (with 60 seats) supported on confidence and supply issues by Winston Peters’ New Zealand First caucus. Winston Peters would continue as Foreign Minister, Helen Clark said.
Now that’s so wishful it’s funny. A 4.4% gap when the most favourable are showing 15%, and the worst 27%? Is he seriously suggesting that minor parties would go against the most popular opposition leader of all time, to prop up a fading Labour? Does Jordan remember that National almost stitched up a collation last election, only foiled by New Zealand first? Does he remember that it was Jim Anderton who gave Bolger confidence and supply in 1993?
But this is important – the left are now acknowledging that Labour is a long way off any hope of winning. Because even with two almost impossible events into the mix (small gap and small parties willing to support less popular large party), they’ve still only on a knife edge in this scenario.
The PM says…
Helen Clark says tax cuts will help alleviate money issues for families
Prime Minister Helen Clark says tax cuts to be announced in next month’s budget will deliver timely relief for families, and she doesn’t think GST will be removed on food.
(I expect that’s the last time that photographer will be allowed near the Clarkvader!)
Jordon however, didn’t get that memo…
…The other is saying, actually we can’t cut it in the world, and the only way to improve our incomes is to slice away at the public sector, to give a small, short term boost to people’s pockets.
One of the most important debates this year is to work out how best to boost wages, so incomes can grow and New Zealand can be more successful. Tax cuts aren’t really at the core of that debate.
Oops. I guess there’ll be shortly a post explaining that a “small, short term boost to people’s pockets” is not a bad thing…
Jordan’s blog is always good for a few laughs these days.
This all fits in well with an agenda that swept around Wellington a couple weeks ago: that National’s planning a “Shock and Awe” agenda of following on the 80s/90s agenda if it wins the election, and then spending two years trying to get everyone forgive and forget.The events of the week suddenly make that rumour, which seemed frankly a bit nuts, a big step more credible.
Wow, so what ground shaking events are those?
- Former ACT MP Stephen Franks was selected by National as their candidate in the prime seat of Wellington Central.
- Roger Douglas gave a press conference at Parliament, outlining his policy agenda which would be the negotiating point between ACT and National in a post election scenario. It’s the Blue Agenda, back to 1988 all over again.
- Bill English and John Key ruled out the idea of Douglas in a senior position in a National-led government…
So National grabs one of the last Parliament’s most respected MPs, then distances themselves from someone who Jordan considers an extremist.
I’m sorry, exactly how are either of those things a bad idea?
Yep, and Kerry is president.
Look, I have to say when a minor player in either part in the USA does something stupid I just don’t care.
Having said that, this is something that just might backfire massively.
What Jordon doesn’t realise is that if the Republicans lose, the system over there doesn’t work like here. People don’t just fall into line. Regan managed just fine with both houses Democrat controlled for many years.
Also, the media has been predicting this “loss” for months. I suspect the public are not going to listen too much to their pontifications.
Just noted what I thought – the guy’s in the house. There’s like 400 of them, one down, who cares.
It’s the Senate that matters.
Jordon lashes out at Brash, stating that he is trying to destroy Maoridom. He says this pushes Brash further from the mainstream.
Actually, I’d say it puts him squarly in it. Everyone makes comments like this, I’ve even heard Maori do it.
Having said that, let’s not do it again. Once is enough.
Jordan, in his post “A Line in the Sand” says:
And so where do we go from here? Brash needs to go. National can’t win an election with him in place. The sooner he goes the sooner National can try and start backing out of the cul de sac he has backed them into.
While we’re all handing out advise to the opposition, here’s mine:
Labour can’t win the next election. I know they think they can, and easily. Forget it. They pulled out too many stops last time, the damage from that is just going to reverbrate for too long.
Labour’s best bet is to look to the future.
1. Tone things down. People are going to realise sooner or later that National stopped making stupid noises some time ago.
2. Deal with their current funding problems. Don’t know how, but make it honest. Stop criticizing the AG would also be a good move here.
3. Call an election and take the hit of a spell in opposition.
Unfortunately, Labour remain very strong politically and I have no doubt that after 3 years they are likely to be back stronger than ever for another couple of terms.
Fortunately, if Labour were to loose, Helen would go (can’t really see her taking another stint in opposition really) leaving the party hard pressed to get a new leader who can keep the ship together. Like Iraq, when the strong dictator goes, the populace is going to get a little hard to manage for a while…
Really though, it’s had to remember now how well Labour used to handle crises. I guess you can only blame the previous government for so long…